Trump to Smotrich: Modi’s geopolitical volte-face

After Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi signed the Tianjin Declaration on September 1st at the conclusion of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization’s (SCO) summit in the Chinese city, which condemned the US-Israeli war crimes in Gaza and Iran, New Delhi has re-started its diplomatic acrobatic stunts, in a bid to return to the West’s fold, using its proximity with China-Russia axis as a bargaining chip.

Firstly, US President Donald Trump extended an olive branch to Mr Modi, which the Indian prime minister gladly accepted through a social media post directly referring to the American president for the first time since the tariff row unfolded at the beginning of August. 

On Wednesday, September 10th, Mr Modi appreciated Mr Trump’s social media post declaring that his government values friendship with India and is trying to conduct trade negotiations.

“I am also looking forward to speaking with President Trump. We will work together to secure a brighter, more prosperous future for both our people,” Mr Modi posted on X (formerly Twitter), sharing a screenshot of Mr Trump’s original post.

Secondly, the European Union (EU) has also hastened the process for a free-trade agreement (FTA) with India, following Mr Modi’s hobnobbing with Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin. The conclusion of India’s FTA with the EU will give an impetus to Mr Modi’s government, which has been suffering geopolitical setbacks.

Finally, on September 8th, despite India’s maiden condemnation of Israeli attacks on Gaza and Iran at the SCO summit, Israel’s controversial finance minister, Bezalel Smotrich, visited New Delhi to sign a Bilateral Investment Agreement (BIA) with his Indian counterpart, Nirmala Sitharaman.

According to the Indian government, Mr Smotrich “emphasised the need for greater collaboration between the two nations in the field of cybersecurity, defence, innovation and high-technology sectors.”

The BIA, according to the government, aims to boost “investments, provide greater certainty and protection for investors, facilitating the growth of trade and mutual investments by ensuring a minimum standard of treatment, and an independent dispute resolution mechanism through arbitration.” 

The BIA also includes provisions to “safeguard investments against expropriation, ensure transparency, and enable smooth transfers and compensation for losses. At the same time, it carefully balances investor protection with the State’s regulatory rights, preserving sufficient policy space for sovereign governance.”

Ms Sitharaman highlighted that the BIA aims to increase bilateral investments between the two countries, which presently stands at a total of $800m, to benefit the corporates of the two countries. 

While most countries in the West, excluding the US, have been banning Mr Smotrich for his controversial role in the ongoing attacks against civilians in Gaza, India welcomed him and signed the BIA, which empowers Tel Aviv further in its military endeavours across West Asia.

India’s signing of BIA with Israel followed Mr Modi’s prompt condemnation of an attack on Israeli settlers in Jerusalem on Monday, where he again expressed solidarity with Israel while remaining quiet on its atrocities. 

This shows a major deviation from his stance at the SCO summit, which critics say was a compulsion under Chinese-Russian pressure.

The bonhomie didn’t end there. 

To exemplify India’s unwavering support for Israel, while Mr Modi promptly condemned the shootout in Jerusalem on Monday, he remained mute on not just the ongoing Israeli attacks on Gaza, but also when it attacked Qatar on Tuesday, September 9th. 

Qatar is a country with which India shares close ties. Mr Modi knew he had to say something about it. However, he remained quiet for an entire day, and, after receiving a call from the Qatari Amir Sheikh Tamim Bin Hamad Al-Thani, the prime minister expressed his “deep concerns” on Wednesday.

“India condemns the violation of the sovereignty of the brotherly State of Qatar. We support resolution of issues through dialogue and diplomacy, and avoiding escalation. India stands firmly in support of peace and stability in the region, and against terrorism in all its forms and manifestations,” Mr Modi posted on his X handle, a day after the attacks.

This shows a stark contrast in his approach towards Israel and other countries of West Asia.

However, in the entire post, Mr Modi avoided naming Israel as the aggressor, the violator of Qatar’s sovereignty. India’s condemnation sounded weaker than even the Arab countries that have been accused of being Israel’s lackeys by the West Asian people. 

Even countries like Jordan, Saudi Arabia and the UAE have strongly condemned Israel, naming it. 

Yet, India, which wants to project itself as an emerging superpower and the leading force of the Global South, chose to look away.

This display of diplomatic servility exemplifies India’s hypocritical foreign policy, which, under the guise of “strategic autonomy”, promotes subservience towards the West and to consolidate its status as a regional bully.

In the long term, this approach hurts India’s interests, not just in South and West Asia, but also across the Global South, as it becomes an untrustworthy ally. This will further push Global South countries into the fold of China, leaving India without friends.

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