The war between Iran and the US–Israel nexus has now entered its 36th day. The conflict risks wider regional escalation, with growing implications for West Asia and beyond. In recent days, multiple proposals from both sides have circulated in international media, but none have produced tangible results. Reports had suggested that tensions between Tehran and Washington could ease through Pakistani mediation, but no concrete outcome has emerged.
Ayatollah Sayyed Ali Khamenei was killed in a joint US–Israeli operation on February 28th. Since then, hostilities have expanded, with countries across West Asia facing direct consequences. At the same time, global markets have shown sustained volatility, driven in part by rising crude oil prices. Brent crude has fluctuated above $100 per barrel in recent weeks, reflecting supply concerns linked to the conflict. Although the war began unexpectedly, it has since evolved into a more structured confrontation, with both sides adopting multi-pronged strategies. US President Donald Trump‘s administration has moved additional troops and combat equipment to key locations, while international media continues to focus on the possibility of a ceasefire.
Why Iran–US–Israel conflict is escalating?
Recent actions by Mr Trump suggest a preference for demonstrating military strength over pursuing diplomatic negotiations. His defence secretary, Peter Hegseth, and secretary of state, Marco Rubio, are widely regarded as favouring assertive security policies. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has taken a similar approach. As a result, geopolitical analysts have questioned the viability of current ceasefire proposals, including a reported 15-point framework brokered by Pakistan. The trajectory suggests the conflict may be prolonged.
Tehran, meanwhile, appears to recognise the coordinated approach of Tel Aviv and Washington. In response, it has sought to stabilise diplomatic relations with Saudi Arabia and Qatar, alongside continued engagement with Pakistan. Iran has also reduced missile activity against neighbouring countries, consistent with earlier public commitments. As a result, conditions in parts of the region have stabilised relative to earlier phases of the conflict, although attacks have continued in the United Arab Emirates, particularly in Dubai. The current Iranian leadership does not appear to seek a broader confrontation with the Arab world.
What does escalation in West Asia mean for global stability?
During last year’s 12-day Iran–Israel conflict, Israel’s primary objective was to target Iran’s nuclear infrastructure. The Trump administration initially aimed to weaken Iran’s leadership structure while degrading its military capabilities, including missile systems and bases. Over time, however, operational priorities appear to have shifted. Current US focus includes Kharg Island, Bandar Abbas and the Strait of Hormuz—locations central to Iran’s energy exports and economic stability. Kharg Island accounts for a significant share of Iran’s oil exports, while roughly 20% of global crude oil supply passes through the Strait of Hormuz. These locations, therefore, represent critical economic infrastructure. The strategic emphasis now appears to be on increasing pressure directly on Tehran.
The United States has recently deployed approximately 2,000 paratroopers to the region under senior military leadership, alongside the movement of heavy transport aircraft, including C-17s, into multiple West Asian locations. In addition, US naval deployments in the Gulf have increased, with carrier strike groups positioned near key maritime routes. These actions indicate preparation for a broader conflict scenario.
Iran has responded by reinforcing its defensive posture, deploying additional forces, advanced air defence systems and anti-armour capabilities on Kharg Island. Estimates suggest Iran possesses one of the region’s largest missile inventories, with several thousand short- and medium-range systems. These measures have strengthened defensive positions in areas considered vulnerable to attack. The overall trajectory suggests that the conflict could intensify further.
In strategic terms, the United States appears to be applying simultaneous military and diplomatic pressure on Tehran. Such dual pressure could place significant strain on Iran’s current administration. At the same time, any escalation into a full-scale ground conflict would likely drive further increases in oil prices and deepen instability in global markets.
Iran, however, differs significantly from Iraq in terms of military capacity and strategic depth. The past five weeks of fighting suggest an ability to sustain prolonged engagement using drones, missiles, mines and asymmetric warfare capabilities. Analysts therefore assess that, if a ground war begins, it may not be easily contained. The outcome would likely depend on which side can sustain long-term operational continuity.
Following a recent announcement by Mr Trump of a proposed five-day ceasefire, Iran indicated it was not seeking a short-term truce, citing concerns over prolonged instability. Tehran’s current approach appears focused on increasing the cost and impact of the conflict, with the potential to exert long-term pressure on the global economy.
What is unfolding is not just a war of attrition, but a test of how long the region—and the global economy—can endure sustained instability.
[The author works at the Physics Division, State Forensic Science Laboratory, Kolkata, West Bengal. Views expressed are personal.]
East Post is an independent geopolitical analysis portal covering South Asia and global power dynamics for international audiences. Views expressed are analytical and do not constitute endorsement of any state or non-state actor.
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