The monsoon session of India’s Parliament was already proving uncomfortable for Narendra Modi when Donald Trump delivered the knockout blow. On Wednesday evening, as the prime minister faced relentless opposition questioning about his foreign policy failures, Mr Trump’s announcement of a 25% tariff on Indian imports landed like a diplomatic thunderbolt. For a leader who had staked his international reputation on personal chemistry with the American president, the humiliation was complete.
The irony cut deep. Mr Modi had spent years cultivating his image as Mr Trump’s “special friend”, the leader who could deliver India-US relations through personal diplomacy.
Yet Mr Trump’s 25% tariff on imports from India revealed the hollowness of this supposed friendship, exposing Mr Modi’s fundamental misreading of American priorities and his own diplomatic limitations.
This has further provided ammunition to the Opposition, who now target the prime minister with much vigour.
Brutal truth social reckoning
Mr Trump’s social media post contained no diplomatic niceties, no acknowledgement of years of Mr Modi’s courtship. Instead, it delivered a comprehensive indictment of India’s foreign policy choices with characteristic bluntness.
“Remember, while India is our friend, we have, over the years, done relatively little business with them because their Tariffs are far too high, among the highest in the World, and they have the most strenuous and obnoxious non-monetary Trade Barriers of any Country,” Trump wrote on Truth Social. “Also, they have always bought a vast majority of their military equipment from Russia, and are Russia’s largest buyer of ENERGY, along with China, at a time when everyone wants Russia to STOP THE KILLING IN UKRAINE — ALL THINGS NOT GOOD! INDIA WILL THEREFORE BE PAYING A TARIFF OF 25%, PLUS A PENALTY FOR THE ABOVE, STARTING ON AUGUST FIRST.”
The post’s capitalised conclusion felt like a diplomatic slap. Here was Mr Modi’s supposed friend publicly humiliating India while imposing economic punishment for policy choices Mr Trump deemed unacceptable.
And one can’t forget how Mr Modi became one of the first top politicians, after Mr Trump and his Vice President JD Vance, to join the real estate mogul’s social media platform Truth Social to appease him. The bitter response from Mr Trump shows that such naive steps have no value in the diplomatic world.
Opposition pounces on Modi’s miscalculation
The timing could hardly have been worse for Mr Modi.
Opposition parties had already cornered the government over Mr Trump’s earlier claims about forcing a ceasefire between India and Pakistan following May’s military skirmish.
Leader of Opposition Rahul Gandhi had challenged Mr Modi to call Trump a “liar” in the Parliament regarding Mr Trump’s ceasefire mediation claims.
Mr Modi’s silence on that challenge now looked even more damaging in light of Mr Trump’s 25% tariff announcement on Indian commodities.
The opposition Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance seized on Mr Trump’s harsh assessment of India as vindication of their criticism.
For months, they had questioned Mr Modi’s claim that personal diplomacy was strengthening bilateral ties and putting Indo-US trade on an ambitious growth trajectory.
Mr Trump’s punitive measures against India, while imposing lower tariffs on Pakistan (19%) and Bangladesh (22%), shattered Mr Modi’s narrative completely.
Friendship that never was
The backstory of Mr Modi’s pursuit of Mr Trump makes his current predicament more poignant.
Mr Modi had gone gaga over his supposed friendship with Mr Trump, never missing opportunities for cosy photographs during the American president’s previous tenure.
The “Howdy Modi” event in Texas and the “Namaste Trump” rally in Ahmedabad seemed to cement a special relationship.
When Mr Trump won the 2024 presidential election, Mr Modi’s congratulatory message on X radiated optimism: “Heartiest congratulations my friend @realDonaldTrump on your historic election victory. As you build on the successes of your previous term, I look forward to renewing our collaboration to further strengthen the India-US Comprehensive Global and Strategic Partnership.”
Heartiest congratulations my friend @realDonaldTrump on your historic election victory. As you build on the successes of your previous term, I look forward to renewing our collaboration to further strengthen the India-US Comprehensive Global and Strategic Partnership. Together,… pic.twitter.com/u5hKPeJ3SY
— Narendra Modi (@narendramodi) November 6, 2024
Congratulations my dear friend President @realDonaldTrump on your historic inauguration as the 47th President of the United States! I look forward to working closely together once again, to benefit both our countries, and to shape a better future for the world. Best wishes for a…
— Narendra Modi (@narendramodi) January 20, 2025
Yet the anticipated invitation to Mr Trump’s inauguration never came. Mr Modi was forced to watch from afar while other world leaders attended the ceremony. Opposition allegations that External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar had been dispatched to seek an invitation added to the embarrassment.
Modi’s desperate diplomatic gestures fall flat
Mr Modi’s subsequent efforts to repair relations only highlighted his weakness. His February visit to the US produced the cringeworthy declaration: “Borrowing an expression from the US, our vision for a developed India is to ‘Make India Great Again’, or MIGA. When America and India work together, when it’s MAGA plus MIGA, it becomes mega – a mega partnership for prosperity.”
Mr Modi had traded India’s sovereignty by accepting all of Mr Trump’s demands in return for a few pats on the back and a press conference where the US president uttered a few words of praise.
The Opposition was furious, but Mr Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) called it a masterstroke.
The BJP claimed this alignment would shield India from Mr Trump’s threatened tariff war. Mr Modi even sent Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal to Washington to negotiate a trade deal that might balance India’s technological dependence with American concerns about Russian ties.
None of these gestures succeeded. Mr Trump remained unmoved by Mr Modi’s courtship, apparently viewing India’s continued BRICS and Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) membership and Russian energy purchases as more significant than personal relationships or symbolic alignments.
How Trump’s 25% tariff strike on India hits its economy
From August 1st, Mr Trump’s 25% tariff will make exports from India to America significantly more expensive. Unlike China, which has alternative markets and manufacturing strength, India faces limited options for retaliation or alternative partnerships.
India’s service sector, which contributes the largest share to GDP through software and service exports to America, faces particular vulnerability.
The country lacks China’s manufacturing diversification or Russia’s resource independence. Mr Modi’s government has used rhetoric rather than building substantial trade relations with Global South countries that might offer alternatives.
India’s defence dependence on America compounds the problem. Decades of playing “second fiddle” to counter China in the Indo-Pacific have left India reliant on American technology and equipment. Mr Modi’s refusal to join the SCO security arrangements, designed to avoid angering America, now appears strategically naive.
Isolation Modi’s policies have created
Mr Trump’s harsh assessment of India reflects the broader international isolation that Mr Modi’s policies have generated.
The country’s record on Muslim rights has damaged relationships across the Islamic world. Its unapologetic support for the Israeli atrocities in the Gaza Strip has further isolated New Delhi.
Its subservience to American strategic priorities has failed to deliver the promised benefits while limiting options for independent foreign policy.
During May’s India-Pakistan conflict, India’s diplomatic isolation became starkly apparent.
No major power supported India’s position, leaving Mr Trump to claim credit for mediating a ceasefire.
Despite sending batches of parliamentarians to brief countries about “Operation Sindoor”, India didn’t win any diplomatic support.
Rather, it became far more isolated.
No other country even accepted its stance on Pakistan-sponsored terrorism.
Mr Modi’s endless foreign tours and leader-hugging diplomacy had failed to build genuine partnerships when they mattered most.
Road ahead: Acknowledging failure
For India, recovery requires first acknowledging the problem. Mr Modi’s government has consistently denied difficulties while projecting false achievements.
The foreign policy of appeasing the West to serve elite interests has demonstrably failed.
Yet, soon after Mr Trump’s 25% tariff on India was publicised, the BJP tried to downplay the issue and started a social media campaign showing that it’s a victory for India vis-à-vis 45% tariffs on China.
Many also claimed that by not reacting to Mr Trump, Mr Modi has shown “India’s power” and in time, New Delhi will emerge victorious.
Mr Trump’s 25% tariff decision forces a reckoning with geopolitical realities.
While India must continue engaging with America and the West, it needs genuine alternatives to American dependence.
As Mr Trump pushes America backwards in a bid to reach its lost “golden era”, countries that remain subservient will suffer most.
Mr Modi’s diplomatic delusions have cost India dearly. His supposed friendship with Mr Trump has yielded humiliation rather than partnership.
The prime minister who promised to make India a global power has instead overseen its isolation and subordination. Mr Trump’s 25% tariff on India serves as a brutal reminder that in international relations, personal chemistry matters far less than national interests and strategic power.
