At South Africa’s G-20, Modi seeks new openings

India’s prime minister, Narendra Modi, has arrived in Johannesburg to attend the G20 summit, joining leaders from 42 other countries. His decision to travel to South Africa has been shaped in part by US President Donald Trump’s boycott of the summit.

At the start of August, the US imposed an additional 25% tariff on Indian exports. Total duties on goods entering America from India have therefore reached 50%. Since then, Mr Modi has avoided meeting Mr Trump in person. Many in New Delhi fear that a face-to-face encounter could create political risks at home until Washington rolls back the punitive tariffs.

Mr Trump has repeatedly claimed that he mediated to end May’s four-day conflict between India and Pakistan. Islamabad has endorsed this version, but Mr Modi and his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), rooted in Hindu nationalism, have not done so. Analysts argue that accepting the claim would damage his domestic standing. The opposition—led by the Indian National Congress and left-wing parties—shares this view. For similar reasons, Mr Modi skipped the recent ASEAN summit in Malaysia and joined it only virtually.

Mr Trump’s boycott of the South African G20 meeting, and the absence of two BRICS leaders—Russia’s Vladimir Putin and China’s Xi Jinping—have created a useful stage for Mr Modi. He is expected to use the summit to strengthen India’s ties with the global south, in particular African Union states, and also to deepen relations with European partners.

The summit matters to Mr Modi for a more specific reason—the uncertain future of the India–Middle East–Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC). The project was launched at the New Delhi G20 summit in September 2023 during a joint meeting of leaders from India, the United States, Saudi Arabia and the European Union.

IMEC aims to link South and South-East Asia with European markets while bypassing the increasingly unstable Indian Ocean and Red Sea. Goods, hydrogen and data connections would move from ports in Gujarat and Maharashtra to the United Arab Emirates. Rail links and parallel data lines would carry them across Saudi Arabia and Jordan, then through the Israeli-occupied port of Haifa to Italy.

Israel’s escalating assault on Gaza since October 2023—violence that has continued into 2025—has stalled the plan. Saudi Arabia, concerned about its regional role, has refused to proceed further until the Palestinian statehood issue is resolved. 

Though Benjamin Netanyahu praised Riyadh and Abu Dhabi at the UN General Assembly in 2024 and urged the implementation of IMEC, only the Emirates have remained willing. Saudi Arabia has stepped back.

Analysts argue that Riyadh’s hesitation is driven not only by concern for Palestinians but also by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s strategy of using the project as leverage in negotiations with Western powers. This became clear after Mr Trump met the crown prince at the White House and announced new US-Saudi understandings.

A stalled corridor would be a major setback for the Modi government and the BJP. IMEC would benefit some of India’s biggest corporate groups. The port of Mundra in Gujarat, where the corridor would begin, is owned by the Adani Group. The same group also owns the port of Haifa. Adani is expected to supply the hydrogen pipeline planned for the route.

Opposition parties, particularly those in the INDIA alliance, accuse the government of shaping policies to favour the Adani and Reliance corporate empires. IMEC was originally conceived by former president Joe Biden’s administration to counter China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). 

Like the BRI, the IMEC plans to build rail and road infrastructures across West Asia. Although India and the US lack the necessary high-speed railway building experience, unlike China, they have undertaken the project to connect the route with railway corridors.

The IMEC was meant to protect supply chains, including semiconductor shipments, amid future tensions in the Indo-Pacific. Yet for the BJP, it also offers an opportunity to bolster its allies in India’s business sector.

Since returning to office in 2024, Mr Modi has attended G7 meetings to promote the corridor. He and the BJP had hoped that a new Trump presidency would bring India and America closer on ideological grounds. That hope has faded. Washington has raised tariffs on India while imposing much lower tariffs on Bangladesh and Pakistan. It has strengthened ties with Pakistan and maintained a pragmatic relationship with China despite fierce rhetoric. These shifts have placed India under pressure.

The duty increases have hurt Indian exporters. The US has long been India’s largest and most profitable market. With lower tariffs, competitors such as Vietnam, Bangladesh and China can gain ground in the US market and affect India’s foreign-exchange earnings.

China, far ahead of India in technology, has been able to negotiate with Washington from a position of strength. America’s tech industry still depends on Chinese technology and rare earth minerals. Beijing used this leverage during the tariff war to secure concessions from Mr Trump.

India has no such leverage. Mr Trump has made clear that India is little more than a local component of America’s Indo-Pacific military strategy. Mr Modi has therefore maintained courtesy online while keeping his distance until a trade agreement becomes possible.

India is now searching frantically for new export markets and trade partnerships. Mr Modi has pushed to normalise relations with China, strengthen strategic cooperation with Russia, and negotiate free-trade deals with the United Kingdom and the European Union.

At the South African G20 summit, Mr Modi is expected to embrace everyone, talk extensively and hunt for new deals. Whether the Indian prime minister secures fresh markets or meaningful relief remains an open question.

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